Well, it’s my final Notes from the Park for the year. I often think this time of year “didn’t that go fast” and then I look at everything that was crammed in and then I have feeling of “how did I survive”. Life since COVID has just been a whirlwind, huge highs and lows, political drama, and I must admit I do pine a bit for days of not much happening.

Before I get onto the world of recruitment and talent, a huge thank you to all of the clients and candidates who’ve worked with us this year – and in some cases for many years. The best part of my job is the people I interact with. There are so many talent people in financial services and, unfortunately, too many talented people on the sidelines looking for a role. It’s a constant source of frustration that we can’t help more people into a role.

Okay on to hiring and talent and some comments from my previous newsletters:

“However, with the other shocks to the economy, I always sensed from candidates that there was a general belief that things would pass and there was hope. That once the storm had passed, their career would flourish and their lives steadily improve if they worked hard. This time it feels different. Over the last few weeks, conversations about relocating abroad - actually that’s too generic, relocating to Dubai is more accurate - have snowballed.” (June, 2023)

“While being ill, I’ve also watched the  “Selling Sunset” on Netflix based in LA and sales volumes are down enormously and there is a reference to brokerages in the US making lay offs. Back home, new starts on building sites have slowed, management consultants are now reportedly consulting on their own business model such is the lack of work, and the big four are cutting back. Where am I going with all this? The latest unemployment figures are showing virtually no change. I suspect that the figures for the end of March 2024 won’t be so positive unless we get some growth back in the economy.” (December, 2023)

“I also confess that there are some elements of the Workers Rights Bill I don’t have any experience of, e.g. Zero Hours Contracts. However, Day-One Employment Rights and Flexible Working as a default will be a concern for many firms, including those in the City. Of course, we will all learn to adapt, but the timing and uncertainty of the announcements couldn’t be worse.” (September, 2024)

Data from yesterday:

• U.K. unemployment at 5.1%
• London unemployment rate at 6.8%
• Youth unemployment rate at 16%
• Sthree (recruitment firm), U.K. net fees down 27%

I’m afraid to say that the news from the U.K. yesterday in terms unemployment and growth was grisly to say the least. Yesterday evening, the government announced its Workers’ Rights Bill had been passed. I’m afraid to say that I think it’s error of huge proportions. Workers’ Rights are essential to democracy and I actually think the previous rule of two years before an employee could claim unfair dismissal was too long. I’d have favoured the old regime of 12 months, but I’m afraid this Bill will do little to help anyone unemployed at the moment - and I expect unemployment to keep growing. Low growth and increases in regulation just encourage faster tech adoption. It happened after the Financial Crisis - it will happen again. From all governments in the last few years, we’ve seen far too much of “party over pragmatism” of “politics dressed up as virtue”. It needs to stop. Young people need to have hope, people need to be able to build careers, and businesses, without the constant meddling by Westminster. The U.K. isn’t perfect, nowhere is, and we need to enforce the rules again the unscrupulous employers out there, but most firms offer a nice environment to work in.

Sthree’s results show clearly that the U.K. was the standout bad performer.  We are losing talent overseas in droves. Talented, driven people, leaving. Hedge funds, business owners, leaving.

Financial services has also had mixed performance. Asset management is in it’s third year of being difficult, VC is raising money but ticket sizes I believe are smaller, wealth management is still performing well but after so many movers in previous years finding candidates is very hard. If there is any comfort, teams are running very lean currently. In some cases, I think they are one resignation or client win away from buckling. This of course isn’t fun if you work in those teams, but it’s comforting to those currently not in a role and seeking work. Rates coming down too may have a positive effect for economic activity.

Budget allowing, I’d advise all leaders to think about succession planning, business continuity, and whether teams could cope with an upturn in workload. There is huge pent-up demand to change jobs and if the cycle changes I expect all firms will see their attrition rates rocket for 12-18 months. Change isn’t always a bad thing, it gives firms a chance to refocus and refresh, but it’s better to be prepared and on the front foot given how stretched many organisations are.

I’m going to leave everyone with something happy, which is totally unlike me, I know. We’re often told the U.K. is doomed or hopelessly divided, but we’ve been written off before.

This is the U.K. 13 years ago. We’d come through the Financial Crisis, which hit us particularly hard given the size of our banking sector, yet we rebuilt, created jobs, and showed real confidence as a country. It shows what can happen when effort, opportunity, and belief align. We can get here again.