Strategic planning and forecasting in challenging economic times

Simon RoderickResearch, insights & industry news

Economic forecasting - challenging market

Strategic planning and forecasting in challenging economic times

In challenging economic times, the role of the CFO is more crucial than ever. CFOs in private companies and SMEs are arguably working through one of the hardest planning and forecasting periods many can remember.
Economic forecasting - challenging market
Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) today face unprecedented economic challenges. With high interest rates, persistent inflation, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, the role of the CFO is more crucial than ever. Experience of cycles, experience of having been through challenging forecasting conditions, and leadership skills have never been more important.

Understanding the Current Economic Landscape

The current economic landscape is marked by high interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical tensions. These factors create a volatile environment that demands proactive and adaptive financial management. Trading updates from listed financial services firms provide a snapshot of the current conditions, reflecting both resilience and the need for strategic adaptability​. This reflects what we’re hearing from CFOs in private companies and SMEs who are working through one of the hardest planning and forecasting periods many can remember.

Enhancing Strategic Financial Planning

We all know that during volatile times, boards review operations and this needs to be done in the context of what the trading environment is likely to look like over the next 12 months. In all firms, they look to the CFO and their team to, as much as possible, move the forecasting process away from the crystal ball to well modelled scenarios, with strategies to cope and adapt to each possible outcome. At the back of the CFO's mind is the need to allocate capital to long-term value, while ensuring short term needs are met. Of course, divesting non-core assets and business lines can free up valuable capital for more strategic investments. It is extremely useful if your CFO has been in this situation before and are able to ensure the right data and metrics are in place to inform decision making.

Improving Forecasting Accuracy

We all know that forecasting in a volatile economic environment requires a blend of quantitative analysis and qualitative insights. CFOs have long been calling for more investment in systems, which improve data transparency, and which can speak to each other. Firms who have made this investment are at an advantage, and perhaps after a difficult period like the industry has recently had, the argument for improved systems will be won. Better data gives more context to decisions.

Adding Value Through Talent and Experience

As mentioned, hiring individuals with experience in navigating similar conditions can add significant value to an organisation. Experienced professionals bring practical insights and a proven track record, helping a firm respond effectively to current challenges. Experienced professionals often have a toolkit of proven strategies that can be adapted to the current context. Their past successes and failures provide a roadmap for effective decision-making and risk management. If you don’t have great data, then at least make sure you’ve got a great CFO who has seen it all before!

Those who have managed through previous economic downturns understand the urgency and nuances of crisis management. Their ability to stay calm under pressure and make informed decisions can stabilise an organisation during turbulent times. Experienced hires can mentor less seasoned team members, promoting a culture of learning and resilience. Their leadership can inspire confidence and drive the organisation towards its strategic goals.

Building Operational Resilience

Building operational resilience seems to be on the mind of most CFOs we speak to (this is of course also amongst the priorities set by the FCA).  Investing in talent development and retention is equally important in building resilience. Encouraging continuous learning and adaptability helps the team navigate changing market conditions effectively. Providing training and development opportunities ensures that employees are equipped with the skills needed to thrive in a dynamic environment.

Maintaining a strong customer focus is also crucial and part of many firms' plans in revamping their service offering. Understanding evolving customer needs and preferences enables the organisation to adapt its products and services accordingly. Building strong customer relationships provides a competitive edge, even in challenging times.

The role of the CFO is in the spotlight and is vital to steering through economic turbulence. Ultimately, the integration of experienced talent at all levels of the organisation not only helps overcome the current economic challenges, but also prepares the company for future uncertainties, ensuring sustainable growth and resilience.

About Fram Search

Fram’s Corporate Functions Practice provides a deeply consultative recruitment service focusing on Finance & Accounting, Legal & Compliance, and Operations functions.

Established in 2010, Fram Search is a specialist financial services recruitment consultancy. We focus on mid-to-senior hires in the UK and internationally, providing high quality contingent and retained recruitment services, focusing on permanent & interim placements at all levels.

We have long established relationships, outstanding market knowledge, and access to deep talent pools. Fram takes a highly consultative approach, combining outstanding tech with a human approach. We are proud that our contingent fill rate is nearly three times the industry average and we augment our retained search methodology with rigorous psychometric testing. We take ESG seriously, we are champions of diversity and all staff have undertaken unconscious bias training. We also carbon offset.

Please contact us on 01525 864 372 / [email protected] to learn more.

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