Before I move onto meatier topics, I’m delighted to share some news about Fram!

It’s not just that I have family in the North West, or that I spent some of my childhood there and have fond memories, but Fram has always had a UK wide client base. Over the last 2–3 years, the team made real strides in growing this, and our client base is now substantial in most regions of the UK. We’ve always serviced clients from our office just outside of London, but on frequent visits to the North West I’ve been struck by how vibrant and positive things are in the region. The likelihood of Number 10 in the North cemented my decision that Fram needs a presence in Manchester – and so I’m delighted to say that Fram, MCR, is now up and running! We look forward to spending more time with our Northern based clients over the coming months and to continuing to build our presence in the wonderful North of England.

We are still in difficult times when it comes to hiring. Demand is subdued for permanent hires and marginally better for temp and contractor hiring. Let me put this into context with a firm I started my career with and always feel is well managed, Hays. In their 2022 Annual Report consultant headcount in the UK was 2,175, and in their 2025 Annual Report it was 1,285. Consultant headcount decreased by a further 6% globally in the last quarter and 16% year-on-year (the logic being that permanent recruiter headcount has been more affected than temporary recruitment over the last few years). According to S&P Global, business confidence plunged in June as we face yet another change of Prime Minister, and according to BDO hiring intentions fell to a 15-year low. The other side of the coin is that the job hugging phenomenon mentioned in the press is real. Firms are constantly perplexed that in a subdued hiring market they can’t find suitable candidates – or that candidates stay put after a long interview process. So if you’ve recently tried to hire and struggled, you may be the victim of job hugging.

Against this complex context, I come onto my topic for this newsletter – Leadership When Nobody Has the Answers.

The UK is in need of a good dose of confidence, when in reality we have a bucket load of uncertainty. Uncertainty doesn’t just reduce activity; it also changes behaviour. Decisions get delayed, the need for consensus increases and the aim becomes to avoid making mistakes. It’s totally natural. The cycle has been subdued for longer than many expected, the data is confusing and mixed, capability needs to be preserved but so does cash in the event low activity is here to stay for a few more years. Difficult decisions about organisational structure, investment priorities and where capability is most needed are rightly agonised over – but delay doesn’t often help the situation.

I started Fram in 2010, in the teeth of the global financial crisis. I’ve been recruiting since 2000. Stable times are rare and, from my ringside seat watching leaders close up, the uncomfortable truth is that leadership has always involved making decisions without complete information. Markets rarely announce that they have reached the bottom, economic forecasts are frequently wrong, and strategy is often judged with the benefit of hindsight rather than by the information available at the time. Yet periods like the one we are experiencing magnify that uncertainty. Every decision seems to carry greater consequence because the margin for error feels smaller.

It is tempting to believe that waiting will provide clarity. Sometimes it does. More often, however, delay simply exchanges one uncertainty for another. A role remains unfilled, a competitor hires the individual you wanted, a client opportunity is missed or a team becomes stretched beyond what is sustainable. Standing still is not always the low-risk option that it appears.

The leaders who seem to navigate these environments best are not necessarily those who predict the future most accurately. Rather, they are those who can distinguish between the things they can control and those they cannot. They accept that interest rates, politics and financial markets are outside their influence, but how they allocate resources, the speed of their decision making and the clarity with which they communicate are not.

That distinction is becoming increasingly important. Across wealth management, asset management and venture capital, the strongest businesses are still making selective investments. In fact, larger players are often able to strengthen their competitive position during periods like this, partly because scale gives them greater financial flexibility. They continue to recruit where capability will create long-term value, they invest in technology that genuinely improves productivity, and they strengthen relationships with clients even when markets are quieter. They recognise that difficult periods eventually pass, but the decisions made during them often determine who emerges in the strongest position.

This does not mean acting recklessly or ignoring risk. Across financial services, many firms have spent the past few years simplifying their organisations, reviewing investment plans and becoming much more disciplined about costs. None of those decisions is straightforward, and they are rarely taken lightly. I think I’ve come to learn that good leadership is about balancing conviction with humility. It is being prepared to make a decision while recognising that you may need to adjust course as new information emerges. In my experience, the organisations that struggle most are rarely those that make the occasional imperfect decision; they are those that become so concerned about making the wrong decision that they stop making meaningful decisions altogether.

Recruitment is often a useful barometer of leadership confidence. Firms that continue to engage thoughtfully with the market, build relationships and hire selectively are usually thinking beyond the next quarter. Those that disappear completely often find themselves trying to rebuild capability just as the market begins to recover. By then, the best people are no longer readily available.

None of us knows precisely when confidence will return. We do know, however, that every cycle eventually turns. The challenge for leadership teams is not predicting exactly when that will happen, but ensuring their organisations are prepared when it does.